2040: The Future of Satellites

In my previous article, 2030: The Future of Satellites, I explored potential developments in our global satellite network, guided by Wendell Bell's framework for future studies. Bell encourages us to "discover or invent, propose, examine, and evaluate possible, probable, and preferable futures" (Bell, 1996). With 2040 fifteen years away, significant changes are anticipated in satellite technology and its applications.

Possible Futures

Personal Satellite Ownership

Over the past decade, satellites have become more affordable to deploy and manage. This trend has led to the democratisation of satellite ownership, extending beyond governmental and corporate control to individuals and smaller organisations. Advancements in satellite technology have significantly reduced production and launch costs, making satellites more accessible (Young, 2015), (Mitry, 2020) & (Langford, et al., 2018). The private satellite industry has seen a 30% annual increase in the number of small satellites launched into low Earth orbit (Mitry, 2020). Ownership costs have dropped below $100,000, and launch costs can be further reduced through subsidies (Langford, et al., 2018). These changes could transform data collection and dissemination, benefiting various applications from resource evaluation to communication. This democratisation would put cyberculture and cybernetics at centre stage, highlighting the increasing integration of technology into daily life and the self-regulating nature of complex systems.

Space Debris Management

A critical challenge for future satellite deployment is space debris. The growing amount of untrackable and volatile space junk threatens the safety and sustainability of satellite operations. This focus on sustainability echoes the concept of the Anthropocene and emphasises human impact on the environment and the need for responsible technological practices. For example, Elon Musk's SpaceX and Starlink have taken proactive measures to address this issue by de-orbiting faulty satellites back to Earth rather than Graveyard orbit and ensuring that the Falcon Heavy rocket returns to Earth, minimising space debris. Sustainable practices in satellite operations will be essential for the success of future space missions.

Given the dangers posed by solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other space weather phenomena (which we only recently experienced, disrubting Starlink operations globally), the rise of mega-constellations could lead to a new kind of natural catastrophe, potentially blocking Earth's orbit for future space missions. With potentially tens or hundreds of thousands of satellites in space, even one collision could set off a domino effect. The Kessler syndrome theory suggests that an overabundance of satellites could result in a single collision creating enough debris to make further collisions unavoidable. While there is no agreement on exactly when this critical point will be reached (Primack, 2018), it's obvious that the chance of this occurring greatly increases with the more satellites we put into orbit.

Interplanetary Missions

By 2040, satellites will likely extend beyond Earth's orbit, supporting interplanetary missions to Mars, the Moon, and beyond. These satellites will facilitate communication and data relay between Earth and other celestial bodies. Enhanced deep-space communications capabilities are essential for advancing our understanding of the solar system (Edwards, 2001 and Weber, et al., 2003).

Corpino & Nichele (2017) note that the role of CubeSats in high-quality planetary science missions, particularly for Mars exploration, highlights the potential for significant advancements in space exploration. This vision of space exploration ties into the concept of cyborgs and transhumanism, where human adaptation to new environments, such as outer space, involves integrating technological advancements into our bodies and systems.

Probable Futures

Advanced Global Communication Networks

By 2040, satellites could form the backbone of global communication networks, providing ultra-fast internet access worldwide. This would bridge the digital divide, offering connectivity to remote and underserved regions. As discussed in my last post, the current infrastructure and bandwidth capacity of Starlink Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites was limited to around 0.1 users per km². In 15 years, more satellites in orbit will significantly improve bandwidth, service quality, and reliable global internet coverage via LEO satellites (Osoro & Oughton, 2021). This development would address current wireless communication issues, particularly the range limitations of terrestrial-based solutions. Lambach (2020) warns of the massive amounts of deeply personal data that could expose users' identities (Lambach, 2020). Satellite-based quantum communications could improve this by enforcing ultra-high security communication over large distances and reducing interception of signals from third-parties.

Mega-Constellations

By 2040, the deployment of mega-constellations consisting of thousands of small satellites will likely provide comprehensive coverage for various applications, including internet services, Earth observation and navigation (Xie, et al., 2021). However, these constellations pose legal and operational challenges, such as collision risks and light pollution for astronomers, which must be addressed through international cooperation and regulatory frameworks (Boley & Byers, 2021). The complexities of managing mega-constellations highlight the need for advanced cybernetic systems to ensure efficient and safe operations in space.

Autonomous AI Satellites

Recent advancements in machine learning, where systems can improve their performance through data analysis and adaptation (without explicit programming) and AI, have shown promise in improving the performance of autonomous satellites. Zeleke (2023) demonstrated the use of machine learning for efficient resource utilization in CubeSats, while Kothari (2020) highlighted the potential of deep learning in space applications. Ortíz (2023) further discussed the need for AI accelerators in onboard processing for satellite communications. These developments could lead to the creation of autonomous satellites capable of self-repair and adaptation, reducing the need for human intervention and increasing operational efficiency.

Preferable Futures

Sustainable Space Operations

Drobyazko (2021) notes that currently, insufficient funding and inefficient distribution of finances in the aerospace industry pose significant challenges to the implementation of sustainable space activities (Drobyazko, 2021). A preferable future for satellites hinges on the adoption of sustainable practices, including the use of environmentally friendly propellants, space debris reduction, and safe satellite disposal (Heilala, 2023) & (Spini, 2020). International cooperation is crucial in this regard, as it is necessary to establish and enforce standards for sustainable space stewardship. Heilala also discusses in their article the potential of space debris as a renewable energy source is also highlighted (Heilala, 2023). Such practices will be essential for maintaining the long-term viability of space activities. This vision is closely related to Paul Crutzen and Eugene Stoermer's Anthropocene and the movement to start making more ethical and sustainable decisions for our future (Moore, 2022).

Environmental Monitoring

Satellites will play a critical role in monitoring Earth's environment by 2040. They will provide detailed data on climate change, pollution levels, deforestation, and natural disasters, aiding global efforts to manage and mitigate environmental issues. Enhanced Earth observation capabilities will allow for real-time, high-resolution imagery and data, improving resource management, urban planning, and disaster response. NASA has already started deploying infrastructure to measure and monitor sea levels from space with high accuracy.

This application of satellite technology reflects the concept of societies of control, where continuous monitoring and data collection are essential for managing environmental and societal challenges.

Global Collaboration & Equitable Access

Bailey, et al., (2001) emphasise that building the infrastructure, policies and relationships for a global space collaboration is a long-term process (Bailey, et al., 2001). By 2040, international collaboration in satellite projects could be standard for addressing global challenges such as climate change, disaster response, and sustainable development (Withee, et al., 2001) & (Tan, 2014). This collaboration would build better freedom of information for lower socioeconomic regions and boost the effectiveness and reach of satellite technology. This reflects the concept of futurists working together to envision and create a better future through shared knowledge and resources. Drawing on the values of enlightenment, using reason and empirical evidence to improve society, global collaboration could ensure that satellite technology benefits all of humanity, not just the wealthy or technologically advanced nations, is crucial.

The future of satellites by 2040 holds immense potential for advancing communication, environmental monitoring, and space exploration. By considering the possible, probable, and preferable futures, we can better prepare for and shape the developments in satellite technology to ensure they benefit all of humanity while addressing critical challenges such as space junk/debris and equitable access for all.

Last Updated: Wednesday 29 May, 2024 @ 3:37pm