2050: The Future of Satellites

In my previous articles, 2030: The Future of Satellites and 2040: The Future of Satellites, I explored potential developments in our global satellite network, using Wendell Bell's framework for future studies. This post uses the same framework as previous articles, but we'll be looking even further into the future—25 years and seven months, to be exact. 2050 will be a significant milestone in the United Nations' 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as per their TWI2050 plan and achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, per the Paris Agreement. Satellites will play an essential role in achieving and managing the aftermath of these fundamental goals.

Possible Futures

Interconnected Swarm Satellites

By 2050, we might see the development of interconnected cybernetic swarm satellites working together in a highly coordinated, self-regulating and adaptive nature (Moore, 2020). These swarms will consist of hundreds or thousands of small satellites that can reconfigure in real-time to optimise coverage, resilience, and data transfer rates (Space: Science & Technology, 2022) & (Vladimirova, et al., 2008). This innovation would represent a significant leap in satellite technology, enhancing capabilities in communication, Earth observation, and space research. Swarm satellites would leverage advanced AI and machine learning algorithms to autonomously manage their formation and operations (Vassev, et al., 2012).

Biodegradable Satellites

Pushed by environmental concerns of spacejunk and atmostpheric pollution of current satellites, NASA and Japan recently developed the LignoSat probe, a satellite built of magnolia wood, with plans to launch in a few months. If successful, this advancement could see more sustainable and biodegradable materials used for satellites materials by 2050. With satellites naturally decomposign after their operational life, reducing space debris and the environmental impact of space activities. This shift towards sustainable satellite design reflects a commitment to responsible technological practices addressing the Anthropocene epoch, aligning with global efforts to minimise human impact on the environment and promote continuous renewal (Moore, 2022a) & (Gorman, 2014)

Space-Based Solar Power Stations

In full transhumanism fashion, satellites could be leveraged to solve our energy needs through space-based solar power stations by 2050. These stations would collect solar energy in space and transmit it to Earth using high-frequency radio waves. Amidst the race to net zero by 2050, the UK are currently working on this technology and anticipates a working space solar power station by 2040, this technology is very expensive and inefficient, with only a small percentage of captured energy actually being transmitted back to earth. If effiency is improved, this technology would provide a constant and reliable energy source, independent of weather conditions and time of day, significantly contributing to global energy sustainability. The development of space-based solar power stations would align with the transhumanist vision of leveraging advanced technologies to solve critical challenges and enhance human capabilities.

Probable Futures

Real-Time Earth Monitoring Networks

By 2050, the expansion of satellite networks in orbit will enable the implementation of a real-time Earth monitoring system  (Leyva-Mayorga, et al., 2022). This network will provide high-resolution imagery of any location worldwide with minimal latency, alongside other critical environmental and societal data, including weather patterns, climate change, natural disasters, and human activities. It will support the global effort to maintain net-zero carbon emissions by monitoring carbon reductions and observing positive and negative climate and air quality changes (Tollefson, 2016).

This data will become a core knowledge base component, facilitating proactive decision-making and crisis management (Vladimirova, et al., 2009). The integration of such networks into global governance systems embodies the concept of societies of control, where continuous monitoring and data analysis are essential for managing complex environmental and societal challenges (Deleuze, 1992), such as climate change and pollution.

However, this development will also spark significant concerns regarding privacy as high-resolution global live surveillance becomes a reality (Mckenna, et al., 2019). Despite these concerns, this infrastructure will assist UN member states in achieving and maintaining their Sustainable Development Goals more rapidly. (Rockström, 2016) highlights the importance of a stable and resilient Earth system, a goal that satellite technology can significantly advance.

Satellite End of Life Extended by Autonomous Spacecraft Maintenance

Advancements in robotics and AI will likely lead to the deployment of autonomous spacecraft for satellite maintenance by 2050. These robotic systems will perform repairs, refuel satellites, and even upgrade them in orbit, extending their operational lifespans and reducing the need for costly replacements (Lopatka, 2018). NASA recently canned their OSAM-1 project, which involved a robot manipulating a set of tools to refuel space-based assets, due to "technical, cost, and schedule challenges", this may be revisited in the future, as capabilities increase. This development will ensure the longevity and efficiency of satellite networks. The evolution of autonomous maintenance systems highlights the importance of machine learning and AI in optimising satellite operations and maintaining the integrity of space infrastructure. 

Satellites Will Send Signals the Opposite Way

Mars is to be settled by 2050, according to UNSW School of Mineral Energy Resources Engineering Professor, Serkan Saydam and Elon Musk, who created SpaceX with the primary goal of getting one million people to Mars by 2050. Internet connectivity for those on Mars will be essential for communication, research and leisure. Broadband connectivity is broadcasted from satellites orbiting Earth to various planets within our galaxy. Moving to Mars no longer means sacrificing comforts like YouTube, TikTok, and online shopping (Haque, 2011). A laser beam link, backhauled by RF, will connect Earth (as the base station) with other celestial bodies like the Moon and Mars, which will have their own networks of Low Earth (Mars? Moon?) Orbit satellites providing phone and internet connectivity. According to ChatGPT, the time for a laser-based signal to achieve a round trip from Mars to Earth is around 25 minutes, so Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) will be established to cache popular content, ensuring faster load times and a seamless online experience.

Integrated Global Navigation Systems

By 2050, integrated global navigation systems, supported by satellite networks, will provide unprecedented accuracy and reliability for navigation and positioning services. GPS would have an accuracy of under 10cm, according to Prof. Andrew Dempster, director of the Australian Centre for Space Engineering Research. These systems will enhance various applications, from autonomous vehicles and drones to maritime and aviation navigation, ensuring worldwide seamless and precise location-based services (Pál, et al., 2019) & (Willgoss, et al., 2003). The development of integrated global navigation systems highlights the role of satellites in supporting critical infrastructure and technological advancements in transportation and logistics.

Preferable Futures

Ethical AI and Satellite Governance

Systems fully controlled by AI, according to Makridakis, (2017) will lead to increased unemployment and more significant wealth inequalities (Makridakis, 2017). A preferable future for satellites by 2050 would involve robust ethical frameworks and governance structures for AI-powered satellite operations. Swinburne University of Technology's Thomas Graham calls for responsible AI in Space, investigating the need for regulation of automated systems in the space industry for his PHD, noting that frameworks would ensure that AI algorithms used in satellite systems are transparent, fair, and accountable, preventing misuse and promoting trust in satellite-based services (Graham & Thangavel, 2023), as well as supporting the global economy in a meaningful way.

Community-Focused Satellite Projects

By 2050, satellite projects could be designed to focus intensely on community needs and local development. This would involve engaging with local communities to understand their needs and challenges and ensuring that satellite data and services are tailored to support regional development goals. Initiatives like the federal government's Digital Earth Australia (DEA) aim to increase the utilisation of Earth Observation (satellite) data across Australia. With many resources appearing globally. This approach ensures that satellite technology's benefits are equitably distributed. This vision aligns with social equity and justice principles, emphasising the need to use technology to improve the quality of life for all people, particularly those in underserved or marginalised communities.

The future of satellites by 2050 holds immense potential for advancing communication, environmental monitoring, and space exploration. By considering the possible, probable, and preferable futures, we can better prepare for and shape the developments in satellite technology to ensure they benefit all of humanity while addressing critical challenges such as space debris, sustainable development, and climate change mitigation.

Last Updated: Wednesday 29 May, 2024 @ 3:23pm