2030: The Future of Satellites

With 2030 just around the corner, the telecommunications landscape is undergoing a significant shift, one that could redefine how we connect, communicate, and navigate our world. A major factor driving this transformation is satellites, complex cybernetic systems that have witnessed exponential growth and innovation recently, largely due to efforts by companies like Starlink and OneWeb.

To more accurately examine the future and better predict what 2030 might look like, we can employ futurist Wendell Bell's framework of future studies, which guides us to "discover or invent, propose, examine and evaluate possible, probable, and preferable futures" (Bell, 1996). Bell categorises futures into these three catagories: possible, which covers everything that could occur within the bounds of physical and human constraints; probable, the outcomes most likely based on current trends; and preferable, the futures we aspire to, based on ethical and moral desires. Central to Bell's work is the ethical duty of both individuals and societies to engage in shaping these futures, emphasising futurism's role not just in forecasting but in partnership towards desirable outcomes (Bell, 1998).

Possible Futures

AI-Managed Satellite Networks

Advances in machine learning, a branch of artificial intelligence, could enable fully autonomous satellite networks. These AI systems, through patterns and inference, could manage their own routing, repairs, and constellation expansion, optimising network performance based on real-time data and objectives, without human intervention, potentially outpacing terrestrial networks in reliability and efficiency (Moore, 2020).

Personal Satellite Services

This idea came directly from ChatGPT v4 and suggests that technological advancements and reduced costs might make it feasible for individuals to lease or own personal satellites for communication, data storage, or even as a status symbol. This advancement could lead to a new era of personal broadcasting and data independence, where people manage their decentralised digital presence, directly from space. Allen Steele's science fiction novel Orbital Decay acts as a novum of privatisation and surveillance in space, suggesting that it portends a complex future in which the lines between personal freedom and surveillance, between independent initiative and corporate or governmental oversight, are blurred (Steele, 1989).

Space-Based Direct Information to Access

In a not-so-distant future, where online channels are compromised by censorship, misinformation and algorithmic control, satellites could offer unfiltered data directly to citizens. This vision aligns with the concerns from cyberculture about surveillance and privacy, highlighting the necessity of understanding our digital footprint in a world dominated by big-data (Vicente & Amaral, 2020). The direct delivery of information via satellites could serve as a counterbalance to the invasive surveillance and control mechanisms identified in Gilles Deleuze's societies of control, offering a form of communication that would empower individuals with the raw information necessary for independent decision-making and community action, circumventing the need for mediated platforms like social media, news outlets, or governmental filters (Deleuze, 1992).

Orbital Advertising Platforms

Although this is far-fetched, the night sky could become a canvas for commercial interests, with companies launching satellites designed to display advertisements from orbit. Biktimirov, et al., (2022) explores this concept, discussing it as promising, yet still futuristic. Given rapid advancements, this could kickstart a new wave of marketing strategies but also raise ethical and environmental concerns about the commercialisation of space.

Probable Futures

Global Broadband Connectivity

With initiatives like SpaceX's Starlink, OneWeb and Astranis, the goal of providing global broadband connectivity, especially in remote and less wealthy areas, is becoming increasingly possible. By 2030, satellite internet will likely offer connectivity worldwide, making internet access universal. However, in a recent study by Osoro & Oughton (2021), it's suggested that whilst Low Earth Orbit (LEO) solutions like Starlink will soon have global coverage, for them to maintain reliability and provide competitive speeds, these constellations will likely need to operate below 0.1 users per km². Which limits their coverage compared to traditional terrestrial and wired solutions, especially in highly condensed populations.

Integration with 5G and Beyond...

Satellites will likely play a crucial role in the rollout of 5G and future generations of mobile networks by providing cost-effective backhaul connectivity in areas where terrestrial infrastructure is not viable (Anderson, 1981). Starlink launched the first Direct-to-Cell satellites in January this year, acting as “a cellphone tower in space,” according to its website. Direct-to-satellite messaging is set to be available later this year. This integration will enable seamless global coverage and increase support for emerging technologies like autonomous vehicles and IoT products, echoing the cyberpunk focus on technology-driven societies and the blending of cybernetic systems with everyday life, influenced by continuous connectivity through digital platforms. The concept of calling from space is not a recent one, with satellite phones being available since 1998 by Iridium (National Air and Space Museum, 1998).

Sustainability

As the number of satellites in orbit increases, so does the concern for space debris and awareness of the Anthropocene. As of 2024, there is already increasing discussion about satellite end-of-life management, including deorbiting technologies and norms for sustainable space operations, to mitigate the risks of space debris. Chandra, et al., (2019) discusses the risks of our current space debris issue and highlights the importance of space traffic management and the introduction of a Multi-Robot System, which follows similar discussion from Advanced Materials Professor, Ralph Cooney, who notes that 130 million objects smaller than 1cm and 34,000 larger than 10cm are currently travelling in orbit at speeds of thousands of kilometres per hour. In 2030, we will see more mindful actions in space. Satellite communication company Astranis has already opted for a more sustainable approach, harnessing the power of geostationary orbit (GEO) satellites rather than flooding the skies with a multitude of satellites like SpaceX.

Preferable Futures

Universal and Equitable Access

One preferred future is where satellite telecommunications provide universal, affordable, and equitable access to high-speed internet for every individual around the globe. This would help bridge the digital divide, enabling equal opportunities for education, healthcare, and economic development. Osoro & Oughton (2021) suggest that this can be achieved by more dense LEO satellite constellations, which will provide more capacity and reliability.

Sustainability & Climate Action Support

A preferred future would see the satellite industry achieve carbon neutrality, which is becoming increasingly achievable with mass production of satellites. Most satellites are powered via solar which is relatively sustainable compared with traditional energy sources. As discussed earlier, space debris management would be highly efficient, with active debris removal and end-of-life deorbiting becoming standard practices. Satellites could be pivotal in fighting climate change, offering real-time monitoring of emissions, deforestation, ocean health, and ice cap melting. Linking this data with machine learning models could enhance disaster prediction and support proactive measures. This network would also enhance global climate efforts by improving coordination on initiatives like reforestation, renewable energy, and sustainable farming, thus playing a crucial role in both mitigating and adapting to climate change impacts. NASA launched their PACE satellite in February, which aims to aid in this by monitoring "key variables associated with cloud formation, particles and pollutants in the air, and microscopic, floating marine life", with the goal to better track climate change.

As we approach 2030, guided by Wendell Bell's vision for evaluating futures, satellites are positioned to have a significant impact on connectivity, environmental monitoring, and global equity. Embracing these changes with Bell's foresight ensures a future where technology fosters a more connected and sustainable world for all.

Last Updated: Thursday, 4 April 2024, 7:33 PM